Free NBA parlay picks, odds, best bets for 12-1 payout: Model backing Knicks, Clippers on Thursday, May 1

It’s win or go home for the Detroit Pistons on Thursday when they host the New York Knicks in Game 6 of their NBA playoffs first-round matchup at 7:30 p.m. ET. Detroit sat on the brink of elimination on Tuesday, but a big fourth quarter lifted them to a 106-103 victory at Madison Square Garden. According to the latest NBA odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, Cade Cunningham and the Pistons are narrow 1.5-point favorites in Game 6, while the over/under for total points scored is 214.5. Meanwhile, out west, the Denver Nuggets will try to put the Clippers away in Los Angeles in another Game 6 showdown. The Clippers are 6.5-point home favorites, while the over/under is 212. Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic is +550 (risk $100 to win $550) to be the game’s first points scorer. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. 

The model enters the second full week of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 156-116 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 22-11 (67%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns. Now, here are the best bets for NBA parlays on Thursday, according to the model. 

Knicks (+1.5) to cover vs. Pistons (-110 at DraftKings)

Score prediction: Pistons 107, Knicks 106

The Knicks have covered the spread in three of the first five games of this series, including Games 3 and 4 in Detroit. New York covered a 1.5-point spread in Game 3 with a 118-116 win as the favorite. This time around, however, the SportsLine projection model is giving the home team the scoring advantage in a very close game.

Under 214.5 points in Pistons vs. Knicks (-110 at DraftKings)

Score prediction: Pistons 107, Knicks 106  

The Under has hit in three of the last four meetings between these teams, a trend the SportsLine projection model expects to continue in Game 6. The Knicks’ scoring abilities have been hampered since Jalen Brunson sustained an ankle injury in Game 4, sending a ripple effect through New York’s offense. The Pistons are expected to continue their defense-first style into Thursday’s tilt, and DraftKings is pricing the Under at -110 odds.

Clippers (-6.5) to cover vs. Nuggets (-105 at BetMGM)

Score prediction: Clippers 111, Nuggets 103

LA had the best ATS record as a home favorite during the regular season. Now, the Clippers will lean on their playmakers to continue their offensive push from Game 5 and take a healthy lead against a Nuggets team that lacks depth behind Nikola Jokic. BetMGM Sportsbook is currently offering the best price for this line at -105.

Over 212 points in Nuggets vs. Clippers (-105 at BetMGM)

Score prediction: Clippers 111, Nuggets 103 

Kawhi Leonard is averaging 25.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.6 steals in these playoffs, totaling 20 points, 11 assists and nine rebounds in Game 5 alone. Jokic has carried the weight on the other side of the court and put up 36 points in a 101-99 Game 4 victory in Los Angeles. Denver’s starters have gained momentum as the series has continued, making Thursday’s game a candidate to hit the Over. FanDuel is pricing this prop bet at -112.

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