Kentucky Derby 2025 odds, post positions, picks: Journalism, Rodriguez, Sandman predictions by longtime expert

May 1, 2025

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The 2025 Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday at Churchill Downs, with post time scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET. Hall of Fame trainers Bob Baffert and Steve Asmussen were the only two 2025 Kentucky Derby trainers that drew two horses into the 2025 Kentucky Derby field. Baffert will return from a three-year suspension and is seeking a record-setting seventh Kentucky Derby win with Citizen Bull (20-1) and Rodriguez (12-1). Asmussen is the winningest trainer in the history of North American horse racing but is still seeking his first Kentucky Derby win with Publisher (20-1) and Tiztastic (20-1) among the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses.

Who are the best values in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds to spice up your exacts, trifectas and superfectas, and who is the best bet to win the 151st Run for the Roses? Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and 2025 Kentucky Derby futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling, considering his domination of this race.

A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks on sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.

Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions, expert analysis

One surprise: Demling is fading Rodriguez (12-1), who barely cracks the top 10 finishers in his 2025 Kentucky Derby projections. Rodriguez has a pair of career wins, most notably taking the Wood Memorial, a key prep race, in April. He held off fellow Kentucky Derby horse Grande to win that race at Aqueduct Racetrack in New York.

His Wood Memorial win is getting most of the attention, but he also had a bit of a concerning third-place run at the San Felipe Stakes and a runner-up finish at the Robert B. Lewis Stakes against a mediocre field. Demling has found nine other horses he likes better, including several with significantly longer odds, so Rodriguez is one of the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to fade. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Demling just revealed in his 2025 Kentucky Derby prediction for Sandman, who is third in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025 at 6-1. This is arguably the hardest horse in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field to pin down, as he flashed impressive closing speed in his win at the Arkansas Derby but finished fifth, third, second and third in his other four stakes appearances.

Sire Tapit is well known for producing distance, but his offspring have typically been at their best in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes. He’s never produced a Kentucky Derby winner despite having several of his progeny listed among morning-line favorites. If the pace is brisk early on, that would be a big advantage for Sandman given that he went from eight to first at Oaklawn Park, but trainer Mark Casse and jockey Jose Ortiz are also a combined 0-for-19 at the Kentucky Derby.

Demling has also locked in his 2025 Kentucky Derby picks for Journalism, the 3-1 favorite. Based out of Southern California, Journalism placed third in his first race and has since won his ensuing four starts. All five races come in California, so he’ll have to adjust to a new track and new environment at Churchill Downs. Journalism has three stakes victories on his resume, including in the Santa Anita Derby, but some question whether he’s truly been tested. He’s only beaten two other horses in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, and both are double-digit longshots.

Journalism is sired by the 2007 American Champion 3-year-old, Curlin, who won seven Grade 1 races back in his day. However, Curlin has yet to sire a horse that’s won a Triple Crown race. The pedigree is still strong, nonetheless, as Curlin’s grandsons won two of the last three Kentucky Derbies: Mage (2023) and Rich Strike (2022). Journalism will look to bring the first Derby victory to both trainer, Michael McCarthy, and jockey, Umberto Rispoli. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.