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2024 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, contenders: Surprising picks from top horse racing insider

todayMay 1, 2024 1

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Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher will try to win the Kentucky Derby for the third time when he sends out two runners in the 2024 Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 4 at Churchill Downs. The 56-year-old Pletcher won the Run for the Roses in 2010 with Super Saver and in 2017 with Always Dreaming. This year, he goes for win No. 3 with Florida Derby winner and reigning 2-year-old champion Fierceness, who has been installed as the 5-2 favorite in the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds. Blue Grass Stakes winner Sierra Leone is the 3-1 second choice among the 2024 Kentucky Derby horses. Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom (8-1), Japanese invader Forever Young (10-1) and Blue Grass Stakes runner-up Just a Touch (10-1) round out the top five choices in the 20-horse 2024 Kentucky Derby field.

The 2024 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. With the Kentucky Derby annually featuring the largest field in North American racing, you’ll want to see what Santa Anita-based racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, considering the success she’s had handicapping this race.

Few people in racing are as well-connected as Yu. An on-air host and reporter who has provided racing analysis for TVG, HRTV and the Breeders’ Cup, Yu has spent a lifetime in racing. Prior to her television career, she worked for trainers Steve Asmussen and Ron Moquett. She also is married to Santa Anita-based trainer Ryan Hanson.

Yu also has tremendous handicapping chops. In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, she gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager two years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won the Derby.

Yu enters this year’s Kentucky Derby on a roll. She correctly called National Treasure to win the Pegasus World Cup. In the month leading up to the Kentucky Derby, she predicted Stronghold’s upset win in the Santa Anita Derby and smashed the exacta in the Apple Blossom Handicap.

For the first leg of the Triple Crown, Yu has handicapped the 2024 Kentucky Derby lineup, made her picks and constructed her best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Yu is fading Fierceness, even though he is the 5-2 Kentucky Derby favorite. Fierceness owns arguably the two best performances of any horse in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field. In November, he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by 6¼ lengths, and five weeks ago he crushed the Florida Derby by 13½ lengths.

But Fierceness has been known to also throw in some clunkers. He lost by more than 20 lengths in the Champagne Stakes and was a dull third in the Holy Bull. “I can’t see him being a lonely leader again in the Derby, and he has thrown in the towel the two times someone eyeballed him,” Yu told SportsLine.

Another curveball: Yu is high on Just a Touch, even though he’s a longshot at 10-1 in the Kentucky Derby odds 2024. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Just a Touch has the pedigree to win the Kentucky Derby 2024 since he is a son of Triple Crown-winning Justify. He has tactical speed and this distance should be within his range after posting a trio of impressive speed figures.

Just a Touch broke his maiden with a dominant victory in a maiden special weight in January. He followed it up with a pair of runner-up finishes in graded stakes races, including the 2024 Blue Grass Stakes in April. Yu knows his odds would be even shorter if he had held off Sierra Leone in that race, so she is happy to take the value Just a Touch is offering. You can see all of Yu’s 2024 Kentucky Derby bets here.

How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks

Moreover, Yu’s top pick is a horse who “will be happy to get the added ground” at Churchill Downs. She’s also high on a massive double-digit longshot who “blew my doors off.” She is including these horses in her 2024 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She’s sharing which 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2024 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back? And how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out. 

2024 Kentucky Derby odds, contenders


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Author: CBS Sports Staff

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